Judgement Day is upon us, friends. In observance, we humbly offer this no-holds-barred handicap of the critical statewide and congressional races to be settled on November 3 – and attempt to explain why down-ballot offices that never mattered much in the past, suddenly do.
Arizona Governor
TLDR
“It’s going to be like… carrying a baby grand piano up Camelback Mountain on your back with the wind in your face. That’s how tough this campaign is going to be [for Andy Biggs]” — Former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon, a close, longtime friend of Biggs
Democrat Katie Hobbs
Previous professions: Social worker; state legislator; executive director of a nonprofit which trains Democratic women to run for office; Arizona secretary of state
Strengths: The incumbant is a steady, battle-hardened functionary. And practical. To wit: She picked former Mesa Mayor John Giles, a moderate Republican until reclassifying as a Independent this year, to be her running mate as lieutenant governor. Breathtaking practicality.
Weaknesses: No one has ever accused her of sliding by on her natural charisma and commanding speaking voice.
Key issues: Affordability, which she would tackle with a number of unsexy measures, including middle-class tax relief, utility assistance programs, and housing development. She would need the Republican-led statehouse to implement much of this agenda.
“Affordability is my top priority,” she told the Republican-led state legislature. “I’m encouraged it’s yours as well.”
Republican Andy Biggs
Previous Professions: Lawyer; won $10 million in the American Family Publishers sweepstakes; state legislator
Strengths: No one has ever accused Biggs of disloyalty to Donald Trump, who he supported through the January 6 insurrection. He has lots of political experience after 14 years in the statehouse and another decade in Washington. Deep ties to the MAGA-aligned House Freedom Caucus.
Weaknesses: Trump is not currently enjoying widespread popularity; also, there are notable inconsistencies in how Biggs approached executive power wielded by former President Joe Biden and how he approaches it under Trump.
Key issues: Affordability, which he would tackle by doing away with the state’s income tax and making up the money through mining state lands and “rooting out Medicaid fraud.”
“The [January 6] committee operates with the same kind of bias present at the Salem witch trials, everyone is guilty and must demonstrate their innocence.”
Arizona Secretary of State
TLDR
“Congratulations to Alexander Kolodin for his great win in Arizona’s race for Secretary of State. He is tough, smart, and a proven winner. He was with me in my big Presidential Win. We’ll do a fantastic Trump Rally to make sure he WINS.” — President Donald J. Trump via TruthSocial
Democrat Adrian Fontes
Previous Professions: U.S. Marine; lawyer; Maricopa County Recorder
Strengths: Incumbant has a strong track record of competence in various positions of authority; and a decent goatee.
Weaknesses: Gets in numerous spats over minutiae related to all aspects of voting, and does not always win, such as when he failed to get Pinal County to adopt the precinct-less model he pioneered in Maricopa County.
Key issues: What happened in the 2020 presidential election, what will happen in the 2028 presidential election.
“[Election-denying Oklahoma Senator] Markwayne Mullin can go suck on a salt lick.”
Republican Alexander Kolodin
Previous Professions: Middle school civics teacher; Goldwater Institute fellow; lawyer
Strengths: Like Fontes, he gets in numerous spats over minutiae related to all aspects of voting. While he has been admonished by the Arizona State Bar for representing QAnon conspiracy theorists, as a lawyer he was able to prevent Paul Gosar from being barred from the ballot on 14th Amendment grounds.
Weaknesses: His stances on voting are not his only extremist positions. For example, he also favors legalizing pipe bombs, silencers and sawed-off shotguns in the state (“[I]f the feds want to infringe on our Second Amendment rights, they can darn well pay for doing that themselves.”)
Key issues: What happened in the 2020 Presidential election, what will happen in the 2028 presidential election.
“Arizona is another word for ‘opportunity.’”
Arizona Attorney General
TLDR
“Kris Mayes is the most vulnerable Democrat attorney general incumbent, period, end of story.” — Adam Piper, executive director of the Republican Attorneys General Association
Democrat Kris Mayes
Previous Professions: Reporter for newspapers including The Arizona Republic; press secretary to Janet Napolitano; spent nearly a decade on the Arizona Corporation Commission
Strengths: As a former Republican, the incumbant AG has sound centrist bona fides; also has a strong record of standing up for consumers.
Weaknesses: Has been at times reluctant to help with immigration enforcement, even on provisions popular with moderates; also has a tendency to touch the hot stove on high-profile issues, such as her statement last winter about how Arizona’s aggressive stand-your-ground law could interact with ICE’s unsigned administrative warrants; critics accused her of inciting violence and even Hobbs criticized her.
Key issues: What happened in the 2020 Presidential election, what will happen in the 2028 presidential election.
“I will not be deterred from speaking out or criticizing the Trump administration for its ongoing abuses of power and its trashing of our sacred Constitution.”
Republican Warren Petersen
Previous Professions: Lawyer; real estate broker; state legislator
Strengths: Longtime member of state legislature; popular with MAGA partly because of his prominent role in trying to overturn the
2020 election.
Weaknesses: We don’t know just how big a role he played in the fake electors plot because he took extraordinary measures to hide his communications with the public, ultimately persuading the Arizona Supreme Court that his emails with plotters should be protected by legislative privilege.
Key issues: Yep, elections. Also obsessed with mining the Grand Canyon for uranium.
“The [Grand Canyon] monument designation is nothing more than a re-election stunt meant to pander to radical environmentalists who want to shut down uranium mining and make us energy-dependent on China.”
Treasurer of Arizona
TLDR
My opponent is 36 years old and he’s built a successful business selling extended car warranties.” — Katherine Haley, who was defeated by Elijah Norton in the Republican primary by 13 points
Democrat Nick Mansour
Previous Professions: Stanford-educated MBA turned serial entrepreneur whose most prominent role was overseeing the explosive growth of the Arizona College of Nursing as CEO
Strengths: He has a strong track record in private business.
Weaknesses: Never held any elected office; he’s also a Democrat running for treasurer.
Key issues: Wants to actively manage the state’s assets to extract better returns and aggressively monitor how school vouchers are being used to stop parents from cashing in to buy Star Wars LEGO sets, KitchenAid mixers and Disneyland tickets. (All documented.)
“I’m a problem solver, not a politician.”
Republican Elijah Norton
Previous Professions: Entrepreneur who founded auto warranty businesses; treasurer of the Arizona Republican Party
Strengths: Aggressive defender of Arizona’s Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) voucher program, which has its supporters, including parents who like free appliances, Star Wars LEGO sets and Disneyland tickets.
Weaknesses: Not everyone believes state money earmarked for education should be used on home appliances, Disneyland tickets and Star Wars LEGO sets.
Key issues: Wants to aggressively invest Arizona’s assets in “non-woke” businesses, particularly crypto.
“I think we need to do a DOGE of [the] state education system. There’s a lot of waste, fraud and abuse.”
Superintendent of Public Instruction
TLDR
“I’m an educator. The Asian students are the best students we’ve got. It’s crazy to criticize her for being Chinese. If you go to a classical music celebration, almost all of the people who are carrying violin cases or cello cases have Asian faces. If it weren’t for the Asian immigrants, classical music would have died in this country.” — Outgoing state superintendent Tom Horne, whom Yee defeated in the Republican primary by seven points
Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz
Previous Professions: Middle school math teacher; president of Glendale Community College
Strengths: Spent 35 years as an educator at various levels; notably does not favor using state tax dollars to fund Star Wars LEGO sets and Disneyland tickets.
Weaknesses: No state-level experience or campaign cash; openly admits the state legislature has control over most of her campaign promises.
Key issues: Stopping voucher abuse; shutting down the teacher “snitch line” that parents have used to harass teachers.
“I can’t change laws, I can’t change policy. That’s the state board of education. But we could save money and be a good steward of public resources.”
Republican Kimberly Yee
Previous Professions: Appointed to the California State Board of Education in 1997, one year after she graduated college; went on to hold a string of Arizona government and political positions, including the last eight years as Arizona treasurer
Strengths: People on both sides of the aisle agree that she is generally competent and is not Tom Horne.
Weaknesses: When you hear the term “career politician,” yes, that’s her.
Key issues: Wants to keep that voucher money rolling.
“I’ve long been in the fight against DEI and have led state and national efforts to ensure that individuals are hired based on merit and experience.”
Congressional Races
U.S. House District 1: Amish Shah (D) vs. Thomas “Jay” Feely IV (R)
Arizona’s most affluent congressional district covers northeast Phoenix, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley, and ironically pits a former NFL kicker who played for the New York Jets (Jay Feely) against a former Jets team doctor (Amish Shah). Shah is an experienced but oddly uninspiring ex-state legislator who ran for this seat in 2024 but somehow lost to a very beatable David Schweikert, in a competitive district split almost evenly between registered Democrats and Republicans. As a moderate ex-Republican running on healthcare access and affordability, he looks on paper like the kind of candidate who could take AZ-1. Feely is Tom Brady’s college roommate who finished second in fantasy points at his position in 2005 and has the third-longest field goal in Arizona Cardinals history. Politically, he’s a standard-issue red-hatted NPC who decided to run for office after chatting with Trump at Mar-A-Lago. Also: He lives in Gilbert.
U.S. House District 2 Jonathan Nez (D) vs. Eli Crane (R)
The sprawling 2nd includes portions of nine of Arizona’s 15 counties, covering the northeastern corner of the state including Flagstaff and Sedona. This is a rematch as Democrat Jonathan Nez lost to Republican Eli Crane by nine points in 2024. Nez is a former president of the Navajo Nation and was more competitive than many expected two years ago, far outperforming Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. Crane is a former Navy SEAL and archconservative whose pet issues include eliminating aid to Ukraine and halting all H-1B visas. Despite the outcome last time, at least a few Dem donors think the state is in play – Nez’s $3.5 million fundraising war chest in mid-August was the third-most of any Democrat in Arizona.
U.S House District 3: Yassamin Ansari (D) vs. Alan Aversa (NL)
The 3rd district is majority Hispanic and leans heavily Democratic by an almost 2-1 margin, so running as anything other than a Dem here is largely performative. Incumbent Yassamin Ansari was first elected in 2024 and did freshman-y things during her first term in Congress; most notably, introducing articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth in a futile and performative bid to oust the Trump-aligned Defense Secretary. She’s heavily favored to beat Alan Aversa, a software programmer and substitute teacher who is running on the “No Labels” party after having previously run for office as a Republican.
House District 4: Greg Stanton (D) vs. Zuhdi Jasser (R)
This one could be maybe, possibly interesting? Covering much of the East Valley, including Tempe, Mesa and parts of Chandler, the 4th was drawn to lean Democratic after the last redistricting in 2022, sporting an estimated 8-point Dem advantage in registered voters. Compounded with the fact that incumbent Greg Stanton is a Democratic fixture and former Phoenix mayor who’s held this seat since 2019, it doesn’t bode well for challenger Zuhdi Jasser, a Navy veteran and an internal medicine doctor who lost the GOP primary for this seat in 2024. Still, as a centrist Republican who has lead efforts to secularize and moderate political Islam, he might have a puncher’s chance.
U.S. House District 6: JoAnna Mendoza (D) vs. Juan Ciscomani (R)
The 6th includes swaths of the Tucson suburbs and much of rural southeastern Arizona. One of only two congressional districts in Arizona that could rationally be called “competitive” – i.e. with roughly equal numbers of Republican and Democratic voters – the 6th tends to lean slightly blue in national and statewide elections. Republican Juan Ciscomani won the seat by beating Democrat Kirsten Engel in 2022 at the height of Biden-era discontent by less than 2 points and won a 2024 rematch by 2.5 points. In JoAnna Mendoza, Democrats now have a military veteran and Latino to run against Ciscomani and have funded her race like a serious pickup opportunity. By mid-August, she had outraised Ciscomani by more than $1 million.
U.S. House District 8: Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D) vs. Abraham “Abe” Hamadeh (R)
Arizona’s 8th is a West Valley district that leans single-digit Republican and is currently represented by former military intelligence officer Abraham Hamadeh, who is ending his first term. Bernadette Greene Placentia is a former long-haul trucker who won a contested primary. Hamadeh is best known for his narrow defeat in the 2022 Attorney General’s race, which he filed multiple lawsuits and extended appeals to try to overturn. He made his way to Congress after winning this seat in 2024 but has thus far been unusually quiet in Washington – except to recently defend extradited manosphere influencer Andew Tate.
House District 5: Elizabeth Lee (D) vs. Mark Lamb (R)
Let’s just get this out of the way: They could find a sex dungeon in Mark Lamb’s new guest ranch in Tennessee and he’d still win AZ-5 by a country mile. Encompassing much of the East Valley, the 5th is currently represented by MAGA firebrand Andy Biggs, who is stepping down to run for governor. In terms of registered voters, it leans Republican by a whopping 12 points, meaning Lamb – a former Pinal County sheriff who has appeared on five different reality TV franchises but also frequently stumbles into controversies, including leaked texts and photos that suggest he leads a swinger lifestyle and encouraged his wife to cuckold him; and another involving a large property in Tennessee that he purchased with a private loan from a would-be constituent – is pretty much a shoe-in. After all, if GOP voters could overlook that stuff in the primary, they’re unlikely to hold him to account in the general when he faces off against an actual Democrat. That would be Elizabeth Lee, a nurse running on affordable healthcare and reproductive rights. Incidentally, Lamb professes to be devoutly Mormon. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is or was investigating the adultery claims but has taken no
public action.
U.S. House District 7: Adelita Grijalva (D) vs. Daniel Francis Butierez Sr. (R)
This hulking district lords over Arizona’s southwestern border while extending into parts of Tucson and, weirdly, the far West Valley suburb of Avondale. Its landmass is larger than the five smallest U.S. states combined. Though rural, it is majority Hispanic and includes numerous Indian nations. A Republican has not come within 10 points of winning AZ-7 in a quarter century, and perennial candidate Daniel Francis Butierez Sr., a contractor, is unlikely to reverse that trend this time against Adelita Grijalva, who won the seat previously held by her late father.
U.S. House District 9: Danielle “Dani” Sterbinsky (D) vs. Paul A. Gosar (R)
Another massive, regionally stochastic district that includes both Yuma and Kingman; the entirety of the Arizona Riviera; and much of West Phoenix, the 9th has been mindfully engineered to remain solidly GOP. Democrat Danielle “Dani” Sterbinsky is a Navy veteran who has worked in HR. Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar is a retired dentist whose own family is known to campaign against him. The 67-year-old has also been the recent focus of media attention for his physical and mental health after some public episodes of stumbling and slurring. It will certainly take more than that to scare off voters in AZ-9, where Republicans outnumber Dems by a more than 2-1 margin.
By the Dollars?
Between them, Democratic and Republican congressional candidates had raised more than $50 million by mid-August. But the money was not spread equally. If you want to divine which districts are actually in play this November – i.e. where both candidates stand a reasonable chance of winning – just follow the money.
AZ-1 $13,453,580
AZ-2 $12,900,559
AZ-3 $1,410,975
AZ-4 $3,115,368
AZ-5 $3,657,740
AZ-6 $13,448,214
AZ-7 $217,099
AZ-8 $887,983
AZ-9 $931,080
Will Boring Races Ever Be Boring Again?
Helen Purcell ran for office for the first time in 1988, when she was 52 years old. Leaving a career in real estate, she won the office of Maricopa County Recorder and was never seriously challenged over her next seven terms, spanning 28 years. A series of snafus related to closed polling places led Purcell to have to defend her office for the first time in 2016, and she campaigned by admitting fault and promising to do better. After surviving a primary, she was defeated by current Secretary of State Adrian Fontes in the general election and sent off to retirement at age 81.
Contrast that with the hard-fought 2024 election for county recorder, where about $1 million was raised by the two candidates in the race, which was won by MAGA-aligned Republican Justin Heap. Heap has subsequently spent much of his tenure in courtrooms, quarreling with the Maricopa Board of Supervisors to wrest more control over elections.
It’s an odd turn for the once-obscure office of county recorder. And it’s not the only office to see an influx of attention and campaign spending. This year’s cycle has seen a similar trajectory for other unsexy, down-ballot posts like Secretary of State and Superintendent of Public Instruction. None of that is surprising to Henry Thomson, associate professor of politics at Arizona State.
“There is absolutely no doubt that Maricopa County is one of the pivotal geographies on the American electoral map,” he says. “Once the elections become hotly contested, then people start asking questions about these offices.”
Arizona is one of very few swing states in the country and is unique because Maricopa County accounts for more than 60 percent of the state’s population. That means a large share of the votes for a swing state are being counted in one place, says Thomson.
“These elections are really close; little things can make a difference,” he says. “If the elections were not close, if one party was blowing out the other party all the time, then probably you wouldn’t think that the management of the election would make that much of a difference.”
The increased enthusiasm for down-ballot races is not universal. For example, the treasurer’s race has not seen the same increase in visibility.
“You can imagine that public attention might turn to the treasurer’s office if we all thought that people were stealing money from the state government,” Thomson says. “I could imagine that the treasurer’s office could get really politically salient, but it hasn’t.”
But one race that has seen increased attention is the superintendent of public instruction – i.e. Arizona’s schools chief – which has become closely watched and hard-fought. Ironic, since most power in American public education rests with individual districts, of which there are more than 13,000 nationally and about 250 in Arizona.
“A state superintendent of public instruction in a state like Arizona doesn’t have that much power, and yet because the schools have become such a focus of cultural contention and partisan contention, those races have moved to the spotlight,” Thomson says.
That didn’t stop out-of-state donors from financing and running an ad against candidate Kimberly Yee during the Republican primary that was widely decried as racist, with Mandarin-font titling branding her as “Emperor Yee” for her supposed socialistic tendencies. Even Yee’s opponent, incumbent Tom Horne, was forced to disavow it. She eventually bested him in the primary.
Those who yearn for the bygone days when responsible citizens didn’t have to worry about the implications of minor elections are out of luck, says Thomson, at least until the current realignment of parties has run its course.
“That political cleavage was based on the economic and social structure of the country,” he says. “The social divisions have, essentially, over many, many decades, been eroded to the point that the political party system as we know it no longer reflects the social reality.”
One possible off-ramp was a jungle primary. Chuck Coughlin, a longtime politico in the state who owns Republican-aligned public affairs firm HighGround, ran a campaign supporting Proposition 140, a ballot measure which would have established a nonpartisan primary where all candidates ran against each other in the summer with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general election in the fall. Unlike traditional party primaries where candidates win by tossing red meat to the base, nonpartisan primaries tend to favor centrists with broad appeal.
The measure was soundly defeated in November 2024. And with it, Coughlin says, the possibility of a return to a political system more friendly to centrism.
“More and more voters are being pushed by these very extreme elements in both parties to the fringe, so you just get fewer and fewer real choices, and people don’t want to run – they’re like, ‘I don’t want to run in that race, because it’s just going to be brutal,’” he says. “
