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Research from ASU’s JP Morgan Chase Economic Outlook Center also predicts that overall job creation will stagnate until the housing market begins its recovery. Research shows the construction industry in Arizona has shed 37,000 jobs since its peak at 185,600 in the summer of 2006. The state had the highest job growth rate in the nation early in 2006. Arizona now ranks 46th.
Barry Broome, president of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council, says the state’s dependence on population and new home growth is exactly what’s wrong with the state’s economy.
“This is what it will feel like most of the time if we don’t diversify our economy and improve our infrastructure and schools,” Broome says. “I think the case for changing our economy is very strong right now.”
Apart from the overarching factors that guide the state’s economy, rising food and gas prices are having a more profound effect on the daily lives of Arizonans. According to the Arizona Farm Bureau, the total cost of 16 basic grocery items rose 8 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 ($49.20) to the beginning of 2008 ($53.53).
Arizona Farm Bureau spokeswoman Julie Murphree doesn’t see much relief in sight.
“It’s the perfect storm for families right now with food and gas prices [being high] and kids being out of school,” she says. “We’ve seen food prices move a lot higher just in the past few months.”
Just as few experts are ready to admit we are in a recession, no one seems quite sure when things are going to turn around, either. There seems to be no immediate end in sight for rising gas prices, they say, but eventually the housing mess will sort itself out.
In the meantime, Phoenicians are trying to make ends meet and remain optimistic for the future.
“There’s still a lot of strength here,” Broome says of the Valley. “We’re the third youngest region in the U.S., and those 18- to 35-year-olds are building their dreams here. I just hope when their kids grow up, they don’t have to move away to make their future.”